Sunday, April 17, 2011

Why ebook market share is important

I speak quite a bit here about which path to pursue for publication of your book (self, indie press, large traditional). There are a myriad of reasons to select each one but a deciding factor for many is maximizing income. At AW there in a discussion about ebooks and what impact the new AAP numbers means to writers.

For those that don't know the AAP (which gathers data from 82 publishers, 16 of which report ebook sales) shows that 29.5% of all sales (by $ not volume) are now ebook. So if you add up all the fiction and nonfiction (excluding educational and academic texts), including children and adult in formats such as ebook, hardcover, trade paperback, mass market paperback) almost 30% of those are ebooks. There are a few on the AW site that get upset when ebooks and self-publishing are used somewhat interchangeably. They point out that both traditionally published authors and self-published authors sell ebooks and they want to keep format separated from publishing choice. I'm not sure why they want this but you can't separate them and here is why.

Traditional published authors receive revenues from both print and ebooks. Historically ebooks have represented a small portion of overall sales (3%-8%) so the vast majority of their income is based on print sales.

Self-publishers have a more limited print distribution system (mainly limited to online) their print sales are nothing compared to ebook (2% - 4% for my authors).
  • An author at AW said...."Whether a writer chooses to pursue commercial publishing of self-publishing (or both) is a DIFFERENT SUBJECT from paper books vs e-books" I couldn't disagree more. If you are analyzing the decision from the financial perspective then the print verses e-book ratio is the CRITICAL component in deciding which way to go.

  • Traditional published authors receive income from print sales and ebook sales. Historically ebooks have been a small % of the overall picture (3% - 8%) so the majority of an author's income has been from print.
Self-published authors have very limited access to print distribution (usually mainly online outlets) the vast amount of their income comes from ebook sales (in most of my writer's cases print is 2% - 4% of overall income.

Now let’s look at the authors cut for ebooks in the two models:
  • Traditional: author: 14.9%, publisher: 52.5%, distributor: 30%, agent: 2.6%
  • Self-published: author 70%, publisher: 0%, distributor: 30%, agent 0%
If we look at how ebooks are priced (we'll use Kindle as they are the market share leader) We'll see the following generalities:
  • Traditional: Usually price from $6.99 - $14.99
  • Self-published: Usually priced at $0.99 or $2.99
For the most part, books (or anything) at a lower price sell more. When deciding price you are always trying to see the total income which is # of sales times price. Its hard to determine exactly which will produce the best income - low number o high priced books or high number of low priced books - for the rest of this discussion I'm going to remove this component because both traditional publishers and self-published authors are free to experiment with price/sales and I'm going to assume that they do whatever they need to from a pricing decision and found that "magic number.
Getting back to the task at hand. If the question is...from a financial perspective which should I choose, traditional or self I think the single biggest factor is what is your thoughts on ebook dominance.

If you feel ebooks are for only the elite and most readers will remain in print - then the large disparity in author share (70% vs 14.9%) is not an issue because a larger % of a small number doesn't effect the overall income much.

If you feel ebooks are exploding and print will soon become a subsidiary right - then you MUST focus on maximizing ebook revenue and the 70% vs 14.9% disparity plays a huge role.

When I look at the data I see #2:
  • Borders closing
  • Amazon sells more ebooks then paperback or hardcover
  • AAP reports 29.5% ebook/print ratio
  • AAP reports triple digit increases in ebooks with each sales report press release while simultaneously reporting declines in hardback and mass-market paperbacks (trade paperbacks have in most reports remained flat)
So again if only judging financial aspects, then I contend that you MUST come to grips with what you think is happening between ebook and print ratios. Where you come down SHOULD allow you tally that one item of decision making for one or the other column.

89 comments:

Splitter's Blog said...

As a consumer, it just makes sense. I can access my ebooks from several different devices and never again misplace them. They are always there in cyber space just waiting for my return.

Price is an issue also. Unless I am buying a special edition, why would I want to spend more money on print?

When I started reading your blog I was amazed that the ebook numbers were so small in this day and age. It is good to see them catching up rapidly.

davidgaughran said...

Or to put it another way, self-publishers are not very good at selling lots and lots of print books, whereas trade publishers are.

So if print is in decline, and looks like it is going to continue that way, that removes a major "con" for those who are unsure about self-publishing.

Sean Black said...

Just wanted to say how much I enjoy your blog and contributions on various forums, Robin. While my books are traditionally published by some of the biggest publishers in the UK, Germany, Russia and the Netherlands, I really don't understand the divide between traditionally published authors and indie authors. The only that worries me about the indie movement is the race to the bottom in terms of pricing, which in the long term has potential to hurt all writers. I understand why people do it but I wonder whether people aren't actually damaging their brand potential in the long term.

davidgaughran said...

I'm not crazy about $0.99 cent e-books, but there's not much I can do about it.

I used to get worked up about people selling novels at this price point, and maybe I will again when I release my stuff and it gets spanked in the rankings, but there have always been high-end publishers, regular publishers, and discount publishers, just like there has always been dollar theatres and day-old bread.

It's all about perception. That bread is probably fine, and everyone is saying John Locke is a hell of a writer for 99 cent, but people will pay more if they think it is worth it.

Clever marketing and a professional approach will help set your customers expectations. You need them to perceive value in your product for that price.

If you look at Michael Sullivan's books, for example, there is no way to tell them apart from any of those from the Big 6, and his often look better.

When the customer has that perception, they see $4.95 as a bargain.

Melissa Douthit said...

Hi Robin,

I'm not sure if you know Kris Rusch but she and her friends who are long time authors are finding that traditional publishers are under-reporting e-book sales to their authors. The blog is here:

http://kriswrites.com/2011/04/13/the-business-rusch-royalty-statements/

Also Dave Wolverton mentions it in his Weekly Kick:
"But let me throw something else at you. Recenlty some friends of mine have been examining royalty statements and finding that the e-sales seem ridiculously low. Be doing a bit of checking, it appears that some of the major publishers in New York are under-reporting their e-book sales by 90%. In other words, even if you do go to a New York publisher, the chances are good that they’re stealing your money. Some of them are very up-front about it. Books that should be reverted to authors are being sold as e-books by some publishers—without any royalties even being reported. One major romance publisher is sending out letters telling authors that their out-of-print books are being entered into “an exciting new program. . .”

In such a world, authors really may have no choice but to walk away from the New York model."

I talk about it on my website here:
http://melissadouthit.com/

Just FYI.

V/r,
Melissa

Melissa Douthit said...

Hi Robin,

I also wanted to mention that there is a sweet spot in e-book pricing found by all indie authors, which maximizes revenue. It is between $2.99 and $4.99. Joe Konrath and Barry Eisler talk about it in their conversation on his blog:
http://barryeisler.blogspot.com/

You have to scroll down a bit to see it.

Just FYI also.

V/r,
Melissa

Robert Bidinotto said...

Incredible numbers. It appears that I'll be publishing my first thriller at the perfect time, Robin. Thanks for your sage advice and encouragement, and Michael's.

And congratulations on being able to quit your "day job"!

Robin Sullivan said...

@splitter's blog - I agree about % of share of ebooks being so low. Due to the shear volume of sales I wasa seeing I "thought" the % should be huge - but every statistic I found was 8% - 13% which just didn't jive with what I was seeing.

The numbers being reported now seem to make more sense to me.

Robin Sullivan said...

@david - I agree - and to flip it on it's head...if the thing that traditonal publishers is really good at is getting print into stores...if there aren't any stores...then from a distribution standpoint a self-publshed company looks to be on a pretty even footing.

For now....I don't think big-six publishers will just "fade away" Ithink they will adapt. They had a competitive advantage in the brick and morter world and I think they will find a way to geta competitive advantage in online as well.

For instance they have much deeper pockets then small press and self-publishers so I could see them being very happy to pay out some co-op type dollars (which they are used to doing anyway - i.e. part of their current business model) and for some bick chunk of change get preferential placement on the home page. Or to have their titles listed on email blasts, or change the algorighms for "customers also bought" algorithms.

If this happen the landscape shifts again - change is the only constant...and then the pendulum might swing in their direction and self-publishing coul become substantially less lucrative then it is at the moment. That is another reasn Michael is taking the Orbit deal...we want to hedge our bets...have the Riyria books published traditionally but new ttles that are released will return to their self-published roots - unless of course Orbit makes a killing - in which case they can of course represent all th books they are interested in.

Robin Sullivan said...

@Sean - thank you! That is really helpful as I've had particularly frustrating day at AW.

As to the race to the bottom...yes another thing to be concerned with. I concur with you that it COULD hurt all writers. I've referred to it in the past as a "self-imposed ghetto". JA Konrath totally disagrees with me because he has made a lot of money at this price point- but I think that happens for those that happen to make it into the top 100 for the other people who lower their price in the "hopes" of getting there but don't make it (after all there are only so many spots) it will just result in much small incomes.

Robin Sullivan said...

Thanks David - and that was indeed the strategy. Recently, due to the traditonal publishing deal, we've let it leak that Michael is self-publsihed through Ridan - but prior to that people just figured he was traditonally published - which was the point we were trying to make.

IF we had priced his books at $0.99 or $2.99 the facade would have been easier to see through. By pricing at $4.95 they thought they were a bargain. The only comment I've ever received related to price was one of thanks for pricing them cheaply. Never once did anyone say ... wow your books are too expensive/

Robin Sullivan said...

Hey Melissa - yeah I know about K. Rusch and David Wesley Smith - I think they both have some VERY good things to say about publshing overall. I'll admit that I've not read them as much as I would have liked and now that I have some spare time I'll be coming both of their blogs extensively.

That being said...yes I did see the post about the underreporting of ebook sales and it is...frightening in the extreme.

I'll defintely be popping by your site - thanks for the link.

Robin Sullivan said...

Melissa - Yes, I'm very familiar with both Joe and Barry - long time listener. I obviously think that $4.95 is a good price point - it works exceptionally for Michael's books and Nathan Lowellls. I think for a small press or self publisher going above $5 is a gamble.

But there are exceptions to every rule. Michael's 5th book was putout at 6.95. I raised the price $2 because I thought ... man if they are stil with the series by book $5 they are really interested. I didn't want to "rake anyone over the coals" but I don't think $6.95 is an unreasonable price to pay for the hours of entertainment that Wintertide brings - so I priced it higher and had no complaints. I would not suggest doing this with a first book or a second book. Reall only a book very deep in a series.

I'll check to see if the price discussion you mention is one I've reviewed before or not. I will say that in general eveyone' prce point is going to be different. One of Ridan's authors...Marshall Thomas was not doing well at $4.95 so I reduced his books and he is selling much better now. If he starts developing a following and word-of-mouth then I'll increase it to maximize his revenue....I guess that is a long way of saying...each book is different it depends a great deal on the audienc and the competition. The romance market is different then fantasy and thrillers are different than literary fiction. I encourage all writers who are responsible for pricing their books to research their specfic genre and make an educated decision - but be willing to experiment (and track) by playing around you'll find the price that will yield the maximum income. One last thing to keep in mind. Don't be afraid to change the price as time goes on...There are some that use $0.99 to get some initial readers...a strategy I've seen work - but once it starts rolling along on it's own - don't be afraid to raise the price to get a better incoome.

Robin Sullivan said...

Thanks Robert - I wish you great success with your upcoming project.

wannabuy said...

Robin,

Thank you for taking the time to write this. Well balanced.

I would not underestimate the power of co-op. I'm still a bit intimidated by seeing what a pallet of Steig Larson books at Sam's Club could inspire. I have no doubt that just that one pallet of pbooks in one store helped sell a dozen Steig Larson ebooks.

So as long as Michael makes it into the bookstores by October, the print deal will have a good 'publicity value.'

As to the 'tipping point,' it is past. I'm still a bit numb as to how well ebooks did in January and February. And if they're under-reported by AAP publishers...

Neil

Melissa Douthit said...

Hi Robin,

Thanks for the information! I'll keep it in mind for my next blog.

V/r,
Melissa

Donald Wells said...

1)Print sales declining.
2)EBook sales soaring.
3)More and more indies are building a loyal readership every day.
Add these three things up and it's not a good time to be a Legacy Publisher. By 2012 they will be desperate, and desperate people do stupid things, like underreporting eBook revenue to their authors.
Can you say - Class Action Lawsuit.

Robin Sullivan said...

I agree wannabuy. When the AAP numbers were at 8% I thought well that sampling of data is accurate for those publishers but its gotta be on the low side by at least 30-40%. So if the same applies...yeah tipping point might already be there.

Robin Sullivan said...

Hey Donald - I'm going to give the publishers the benefit of the doubt that the underreporting is not a blant attempt to steal money from authors. I'm going to guess that they have an algoritm or something that is doing the calculation and not tallying the "actual" numbers that come to them because its "time consuming". But that dog won't hunt so they'll have to get their act together.

David Ross Erickson said...

"It's all about perception."

I'm new at this, but it seems to me that for self-publishers, it's more about visibility. You can't separate price from visibility because that's what it's all about. If I could publish my fantasy novel and be listed on Amazon along with all the other fantasy novels from day-one, price would not be much of an issue (assuming my book didn't reek...but even then...)

The problem is getting noticed. Right now, it looks like .99 is the only way to do that.

davidgaughran said...

David - if $0.99 is working for you, more power to you.

The fact is nobody, not Joe Konrath, not anyone, knows a hell of a lot about pricing in this new world.

The key, I think, is to be flexible, experiment, and find the level that works for your book, and then do that for each book.

Sophisticated pricing strategies of the future will probably include all of that, plus seasonal factors, and we might even be able to automate it.

Now there's a business idea for the techies out there - an algorithm to read Amazon's algorithm to price your books to maximise visibility and profit.

Just gimme 10% and a seat on the board.

Robin Sullivan said...

@David - ther is no doubt that wrtiting but not getting noticed does nothing. I have a heavy marketing background, so for me I kept the prices higher and marketed the works.

For someone without that background, yeah, making it "easy" to try you - i.e price is completely legitmate.

This works now - as it is a differentiator - so use it while you can. I fear that if too many people jump on this bandwagon that you will once again "be in the pack" and not stand out.

Robin Sullivan said...

@davidgaughran I so agree with your comment about pricing. I've done a good deal with it and some worked, some did not. One of my great sayings is... "You never know until you try." So play around with price, track your results, and find where the maximum profit level is.

ilush687 said...

For Rovin Sullivan

Hi we are working on a project on the ebook market. We would like to know the market share of major players such as Mc Graw Hill, Wiley, Pearson, O'Reilly in market of Ebooks.

We would be very grateful.

Greetings

David Gaughran said...

Hi all,

If anyone is interested in the European market, I have blogged about that today, covering the market share of e-books there, the factors restricting growth, why Amazon is not as dominant as in the US, and the additional challenges facing European self-publishers, and those publishing in non-UK markets.

For those that don't want to read the whole thing (it's about 1500 words), here are some quick takeaways:

1. E-book market share is about 5% in the UK and Germany, very low in Spain and Italy, but growing everywhere.

2. Sales tax on e-books in Europe is huge, over 20% in many cases, but very low on print books.

3. Kobo and Apple are making big moves.

4. European self-publishers face additional barriers to entry.

(CONTINUED IN NEXT POST)

David Gaughran said...

(CONTINUED FROM LAST POST)

5. Small publishers and self-publishers have restricted access to distribution channels.

6. European publishers are being investigated for price-fixing.

7. The Agency Agreement could be deemed illegal in the UK very soon.

8. Amazon only pays 70% royalties for sales to UK readers, 35% for sales to customers in all other European countries.

You can read the whole thing on my blog, but I want to place a health warning on the figures in the post. European numbers are much harder to come by and are less reliable, for example, e-reader market share is often determined by small-sample self-reported customer surveys, e-book market share is often announced by publishers associations without accompanying data. I am happy to correct any of the information in the post if any errors or omissions are brought to my attention in the comments or by email.

Full post here:

http://davidgaughran.wordpress.com/2011/04/19/you-can-go-your-own-way-european-publishers-double-down-on-americas-mistakes/

Dave

Kate said...

Think there is a big difference in a "sale" at 99 cents and a regular price at 99 cents. Readers know that the majority of Konrath's books aren't normally 99 cents. He has valued his book and his work at a higher price.
For authors who start out that way, they are saying, "My work is worth 99 cents." Then readers come to expect that.
It makes me sad that a lot of authors who are desperately seeking sales bump their price down to 99 cents and still see no results. Sometimes, for whatever reason, no matter what the price, readers won't by your book. That's life.
My first book is $1.99 -which is low- but my long term plan is not to price at $1.99.
99 cents is not a price point for me, unless it's a short story. Locke can do what he wants, but I work my butt off on my stories, and I have no desire to set my worth that low. I don't care if I'm a newbie still building readers. Every time I see novels at 99 cents, I DO think of the ghetto. :)

Suzanne said...

I would argue that all this ebook marketing fuss isn't so much about getting noticed, but about getting noticed by your target audience. After you're plugged into them and are giving them what they need, they'll allow you to quit your day job.

There is no magic feather for pricing. Pricing is one piece of the equation for connecting with your specific set of readers. One size fits all just doesn't work.

Suzanne Adair

Robert Bidinotto said...

Here's an article from the Wall Street Journal about the indie ebook challenge to major publishers, highlighting the soaring success of John Locke.

This cannot have made the Big 6 happy.

Robin Sullivan said...

@ilush687 - The most recent data I have is for 2009. But it shows:

Random House - 17.5%
Pearson - 11.3%
Hachette - 10.0%
HarperCollins - 9.8%
Siomon & Schuster - 9.1%
Holtzbrinck - 5.4%
Thomas Nelson - 3.2%
Scholastic - 2.1%
John Wiley - 2.0%
Workman - 1.2%

These 10 publishers represent 72% of total market. I suspect these numbers were based on sales not volume, though I don't know for sure. I got this data from here

Robin Sullivan said...

@Kate - good point about the difference between a "special" and setting it there all the time.

when I look at John Locke's books - I see so much lost income potential. Price 1 - 3 of them at $0.99 but I really think he needs to get the rest of them up. Based on the WSJ article I doubt he will.

Robin Sullivan said...

@ Suzanne - I totally agree that one size does not fit all but I'll respectfully disagree about being dismissive about pricing. There are many aspects to marketing, no doubt, but choosing the best price to maximize your profit is the biggest component and should not be taken lightly.

Melissa Douthit said...

Hi Robin,

Just wanted to update you on the under-reporting of book sales by the Big 6. In Kris's latest blog, she mentions that not only are they under-reporting e-book sales, they are under-reporting print book sales. If you want to check out her latest blog on it, it is here:

http://kriswrites.com/2011/04/20/the-business-rusch-royalty-statements-update/

Robert Bidinotto said...

That's a shocker, Melissa. Thanks for the link.

wannabuy said...

Robin,

Following the links on the e-book under-reporting... I'm being linked to. :)

Small community...
Neil

Jada Temple said...

Hi Robin,

I came across this post from Karen Dionne, author of "Boiling Point" and "Freezing Point". What do you think about this...

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/karen-dionne/why-99cent-ebooks-are-a-b_b_850053.html

Jada

David Gaughran said...

Hi all,

After the great discussion we had earlier on John Locke, 99-cent e-books, and the race to the bottom, I wrote a blog post on the subject.

Will 99-Cent E-Books Destroy The World As We Know It?.

Dave

Robin Sullivan said...

Hey Jada - thanks for the link - it' pretty much the same debate that rages throughout the blog - and not much different than what I myself have been talking about.

Claude Nougat said...

Great post and great follow-up discussion!

Though the 99 cents price as far as I can see is only a marketing gimmick and once the ball is rolling, any writer - whether indie or not - would do well to raise the price by degree until its "natural level" (probably just below $5 for most indies). So it's not likely the 99 cents price can "kill" the market for a "good" book (say like Locke's)

For the rest - and if 99 cents becomes a "fashionable" price among indies to launch their stuff, and indies multiply, then there's a real risk of having a fast growing 99 cents slush pile, where even the best books will sink out of sight!

Actually, I should think that for an indie, the biggest worry is to achieve visibility in this fast-expanding market...Because that's both the challenge and the trouble: it IS fast expanding!

Thanks again for your post I really enjoyed and retweeted it!

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